Judging exclusively by last round’s performance the advantage is definitely on Toulouse’s side.
But it would be superficial for us to concentrate only on last week and forget all the games so far. Toulouse may have scored 5 against Sochaux last round but that doesn’t change the fact that Toulouse’s offense is one of the weakest in Ligue1, both according to stats (before last week) and the performance in the field.
But let’s concentrate first on Lyon. As expected they were completely outplayed last round by PSG. Any sane person following Ligue1 knew a trashing was coming. Even Lyon’s players knew it and didn’t make any extra efforts. Last week they concentrated entirely on Europa League using all regulars in the game against Betis and considering the match against PSG a training session.
Lyon can count on all important players. Even forward Gomis will be back after missing last round.
Opponents Toulouse were very lucky last round against Sochaux (won 5-1). Not because they won, but because Sochaux’s coach Renard decided to use a defense in 3. Sochaux were already leaking goals from all positions and a defense in 3 proved to be a disaster.
Toulouse mainly concentrate on building on the wings and delivering balls for midfielder Chantome in the center, who often comes from behind.
Fullback Aurier was upgraded to a winger position and did one of the best games of his career. He was just amazing on the right side. Immediately after the game rumors linking him with Arsenal started to abound.
Unfortunately for Toulouse Aurier will be suspended for this game. But they will welcome back offensive midfielder Trejo after suspension.
Lyon’s fullbacks Lope and Bedimo are skilled players and able to deal with Toulouse’s actions on the flanks. Also defensive midfielder Gonalons could successfully handle Chantome’s incursions.
The only problem for Lyon nowadays is scoring. But against a defense in 3, receiving little help from midfielders, hosts will eventually find a hole to exploit.
At 1.96 the odds on Lyon are way too high. Take it now as by Thursday there’s gonna be a significant drop.