Everyone following this website made nice money in the first game when all bets paid: Ukraine +0.25, red card to be shown and penalty to be scored.
Circumstances will be different this time as a couple of important players will miss through suspension, but we will adapt and once again attempt to make nice profit.
There is a high probability that coach Deschamps will change the 4-2-3-1 system in favor of a classic 4-4-2.
France need to score, they need to be more offensive and playing with two strikers (Benzema and Giroud) is the sole option.
A central midfielder will most likely be sacrificed in order for France to start with 2 forwards, meaning less emphasis on the defensive phase.
I am not really sure how much a last minute system change could improve France’s play. This change should have happened about a month ago, when France played Australia in a friendly and there was still enough time for players to adapt. Instead everyone praised the final results (6-0) without realizing how dependent France is on Ribery when it comes to scoring.
Furthermore neither Giroud nor Benzema are accustomed with having another striker next to them in the field, as neither Arsenal nor Real use such a system. Not having enough time to master this playing formation could make France’s strikers step on each others toes.
Being late with a system change is not the first mistake made by coach Deschamps. He preferred fullback Debuchy instead of Sagna. Debuchy is a very offensive player and even if he makes great efforts, he is only human and can’t teleport himself back in defense… Both of Ukraine’s goals resulted from actions created on the left side, where Debuchy should have been and preempt any danger.
Now it’s too late to use Sagna as France need to be offensive and evenly distribute actions on both sides, and not only on the left with Ribery.
Central defender Koscielny was the one who covered the most for fullback Debuchy , but now Koscielny is suspended. Sakho will most probably be the one replacing him and that will create another problem, as both central defenders (Abidal and Sakho) will be left footed. It is not recommended that players near one another rely on the same foot, as they will be pushing in the same direction.
With offensive fullback Debuchy once again in the lineup, left footed Sakho and Abidal in central defense, and one central midfielder less, Ukraine will surely score, at least once…
Fullback Fedetskiy was a key player for Ukraine in the first game. He annihilated Ribery from the start and the French star could barely breathe. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians Fedetskiy will miss this game through suspension. Ukraine don’t have a proper replacement on that side, especially one that could neutralize Ribery like Fedetskiy did.
Central defender Kucher is also suspended furthermore reducing the defensive potential.
Even if the new system will be inconvenient for both Benzema and Giroud, France have the power to score, especially with Ribery having a 2nd class opponent.
Having concluded that both teams will have defensive issues the market most appealing is the under / over. But seeing that the price on over 2.5 goals is equal to the price on Ukraine to score I prefer the latter (odds 2.00).
If you are reluctant to bet on the under / over market, you can always take Ukraine +1.5 at the huge odds of 1.70 because France’s problems are way bigger than Ukraine’s.
Now to combine both markets I’ve placed a special bet: Ukraine to win & over 2.5 goals at the amazing odds of 15.00. I suggest everyone reading this to put some coffee money on the mentioned bet, as not everyday we get so much value for such a strong possibility.
SPECIAL BET: Coach Deschamps to get fired or resign after this game. But of course no bookie offers this bet.